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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.