What Are the Chances For Donald Trump's Gaza Initiative Will Succeed?
Hamas's conditional approval of Donald Trump's Gaza deal on Friday has been met with worldwide approval representing the closest the two warring sides have got in two years to ending the fighting in Gaza.
How Near Is a Deal?
The Palestinian faction's qualified backing of the Trump plan marks the nearest negotiators have reached in recent months toward a full conclusion to the war in Gaza. However, they remain distant from a deal.
The US president's twenty-point proposal to end the conflict requires for the group release all hostages over 72 hours, surrender governing authority to a transnational council headed by Donald Trump, and disarm. As compensation, Israeli forces would gradually withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip and return over one thousand detainees.
The proposal would also bring an increase of assistance into Gaza, some areas of which are undergoing food shortages, and reconstruction funds to the region, which has been nearly completely devastated.
The organization gave consent on three items: the freeing of all hostages, the handing over of power and the pullout of Israeli troops from Gaza. Hamas stated the remaining parts of the agreement must be negotiated together with additional Palestinian factions, since it forms a component of a “collective national stance”.
Effectively, this means the group seeks further negotiations on the contentious elements of the Trump deal, particularly the demand that it disarms, and a solid timeline on Israel’s withdrawal.
When and Where Will Talks Occur?
Negotiators have traveled to Cairo to hammer out specifics to narrow the gap between Israel and Hamas.
The talks begin tomorrow and it is anticipated to bring results over the next several days, whether positive or negative.
Trump posted an image of a map of Gaza on Saturday night that showed the boundary up to which Israeli troops ought to pull back and said that if the group consents to it, the truce would begin right away. Donald Trump is eager to conclude the war as it approaches its second anniversary and before the Nobel committee declares the recipient of the peace prize on 10 October, an issue that is an extensively reported focus for him.
Benjamin Netanyahu announced a deal to bring Israeli captives back home would ideally take place in the coming days.
What Gaps Persist?
The two sides have hedged their positions going into the talks.
The group has repeatedly refused to give up its weapons during previous talks. It has given no indication whether its stance has shifted on this, despite it broadly accepts to Trump’s plan, with conditions. The US and Israel have made it clear that there is little wiggle room on the disarmament issue and are determined to bind Hamas with binding language in any agreement going forward.
The militant faction additionally stated it agreed to surrendering power in Gaza to a technocratic governing force, as specified in the US proposal. But, in its announcement, Hamas clarified it would accept a Gaza-based technocratic governing body, rather than the global authority proposed by Trump in its plan.
Israel has also tried to maintain the matter of its troop withdrawal ambiguous. Only a few hours after announcing the US proposal during a shared media briefing in the US capital recently, Netanyahu published a video assuring Israelis that troops would stay in most of Gaza.
Last Saturday evening, Netanyahu reiterated that forces would stay inside Gaza, saying that hostages would be released as the Israeli military would remain within Gaza's interior.
Netanyahu’s position appears to conflict against the requirement in Trump’s plan that Israeli forces fully withdraw from Gaza. Hamas will demand reassurances that Israel will completely leave and that if Hamas gives up its arms, Israeli troops will not return to the strip.
Mediators will have to bridge these gaps, securing clear, strict language on disarmament from the group. They will also have to show to Hamas that the Israeli government will genuinely withdraw from Gaza and that there are global assurances that will compel Israel to comply to the terms of the deal.
The differences could be reconciled, and the US will certainly push the two sides to achieve an agreement. Nevertheless, negotiations have come near to an agreement before suddenly collapsing several times in the past two years, making both sides cautious of celebrating before pen is on paper.